> ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.vortexiq.ai/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # Chargeback Risk Forecast (next 30d), Stripe > Predicted chargeback $ over the next 30 days based on EFWs and any commerce-sibling shipment delays that historically convert to product_not... How to read... **Metrics type:** [Cross-Platform Metrics](/nerve-centre/overview#metrics-types-explained) • **Category:** [Payment Gateway](/nerve-centre/connectors#connectors-by-type) > Predicted chargeback \$ over the next 30 days based on EFWs and any commerce-sibling shipment delays that historically convert to product\_not\_received disputes. ## At a glance > A 30-day forward projection of chargeback dollars the merchant is likely to see, based on (a) Stripe Early Fraud Warnings (EFWs) already received, multiplied by their historical conversion-to-chargeback rate, plus (b) commerce-sibling shipment delays that historically convert to `product_not_received` disputes. Predicts dollars *out the door before the chargebacks land*. | | | | ------------------------------ | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **What it counts** | `(EFW_count_30d × historical_efw_to_chargeback_conversion_pct × avg_dispute_amount) + (commerce_sibling.shipment_delayed_orders × product_not_received_dispute_rate × avg_dispute_amount)`. Two components: fraud-driven (Stripe EFWs) and operations-driven (shipment delays from the commerce sibling). | | **API resources & fields** | Stripe `/v1/radar/early_fraud_warnings` for the EFW count; `/v1/disputes` for the historical conversion rate and `avg_dispute_amount`; commerce sibling for `shipment_delayed_orders` count. | | **Currency** | The commerce sibling's primary store currency. Multi-currency disputes are FX-converted at the day's mid-market rate. | | **Fees / processing cost** | NOT included in the forecast. Stripe charges $15 chargeback fee per dispute *in addition* to the disputed amount; this fee is excluded from the headline number. Add ~$15 × forecast\_count for fee-inclusive view. | | **Refunds** | NOT a factor on inputs. EFWs and shipment delays predict *future* disputes; refunds happen on succeeded charges that weren't disputed. | | **Disputes / chargebacks** | This **is** the metric output. The card forecasts the dollar value of disputes that have not yet landed. | | **Failed / declined payments** | NOT a factor. Disputes only happen on succeeded charges. | | **EFW conversion rate** | The merchant's last 90 days of EFW-to-dispute conversion (typically 60, 80%). New merchants without EFW history use a 70% default. | | **Shipment-delay conversion** | The commerce-sibling's historical `delayed_order → product_not_received_dispute` rate (typically 2, 8% of delayed orders escalate). | | **Page cap relevance** | EFWs typically run \< 100 / refresh, well under 1,000-page caps. Disputes also rarely hit caps. | | **Time window** | Forward 30 days; uses 90 days of history for the conversion-rate inputs. | | **Alert trigger** | `> $2k forecast`, level at which dispute response work (evidence submission, customer outreach, refund-instead-of-dispute negotiation) typically pays for itself | | **Roles** | owner, finance, operations | ## Calculation Calculated automatically from your Stripe data. See the At a glance summary above for what the metric tracks and the worked example below for a typical reading. ## Worked example A US DTC electronics merchant on Shopify + Stripe. Computed on 12 Apr 26 for the next 30 days (12 Apr 26 to 12 May 26). **Component A: Stripe EFW-driven forecast** | Input | Value | Source | | -------------------------------------------- | ----- | ------------------------------------------- | | Early Fraud Warnings received last 30 days | 22 | `stripe.radar/early_fraud_warnings` | | Historical EFW → chargeback conversion (90D) | 73% | `stripe.disputes` joined to historical EFWs | | Average dispute amount (90D) | \$148 | `stripe.disputes.amount` | ```text theme={null} EFW-driven forecast = 22 × 0.73 × $148 = $2,376 ``` **Component B: Commerce-sibling shipment-delay forecast** | Input | Value | Source | | ------------------------------------------------------ | ----- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Orders with shipping delay >7 days last 30 days | 86 | `shopify.orders.fulfillment_status` + `tracking.estimated_delivery` | | Historical delay → product\_not\_received dispute rate | 4.8% | `stripe.disputes WHERE reason='product_not_received'` joined to delayed orders | | Average dispute amount | \$148 | (same as above) | ```text theme={null} Shipment-delay forecast = 86 × 0.048 × $148 = $611 ``` **Total forecast** ```text theme={null} Stripe EFW-driven = $2,376 Commerce-sibling shipment-delay = $611 Chargeback Risk Forecast (30D) = $2,987 ``` What the card displayed: \*\*$2,987 forecast for the next 30 days**, above the $2k alert threshold. Three observations: 1. **EFWs are the dominant predictor.** $2,376 of the $2,987 sits in the fraud bucket. Stripe sends an EFW typically 7, 14 days before the chargeback lands; the merchant has a window to refund the customer, which prevents the dispute (and the \$15 chargeback fee). A merchant who refunds 100% of EFW-flagged charges proactively can recover almost all of this number; a merchant who ignores them sees roughly 73% land as actual disputes. 2. **Shipment delays add a small but real second component.** \$611 from delayed orders. Often invisible on Stripe-only views because the disputes haven't landed yet. The fix is on the commerce side, expediting delayed orders, proactive comms to affected customers, and pre-emptive partial refunds for inconvenience all reduce the conversion rate. 3. **The forecast is *additive* to refunds and existing disputes.** This card doesn't include disputes already filed (those are in [Dispute Value](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/dispute-value)) or refunds already issued (those are in [Refund Value](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/refund-value)). It's the *new* forecast over the next 30 days. Treat the three cards as three separate buckets. ## Sibling cards merchants should reference together | Card | Why merchants reach for it next to Chargeback Forecast | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | [Early Fraud Warnings](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/early-fraud-warnings) | The EFW count input. The single most actionable card; refund proactively to prevent EFWs from converting to disputes. | | [Dispute Value](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/dispute-value) | The actual disputes already filed (vs forecast). Pair to read "filed + forecast = next-quarter total". | | [Dispute Reasons](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/dispute-reason-codes) | The decomposition of *what kind* of disputes have landed. Tells you which forecast component (fraud vs operations) is most predictive for your merchant. | | [Dispute Rate](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/dispute-rate) | The current rate. Forecast pushing the merchant above the 0.9% Visa threshold is a leading-indicator alert. | | [Dispute Win Rate](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/dispute-win-rate) | The merchant's effectiveness at fighting disputes. Low win rate means even disputes that *do* land cost the merchant the full amount; the forecast doesn't apply a "we'll win some" discount. | | [Refund Rate](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/refund-rate) | The cheap escape hatch. Refunding an EFW-flagged charge before the chargeback lands costs the merchant the full charge minus a small refund-fee, but avoids the \$15 dispute fee and the dispute-rate damage. | | Shopify [Fulfillment Time](/nerve-centre/shopify/fulfillment_time) / BC [Order Status Distribution](/nerve-centre/bigcommerce/order_status_distribution) | The shipment-delay input on the commerce side. Reducing fulfilment delays directly reduces the operations-driven forecast component. | | [Payment Health Score](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/payment-health-score) | High forecast usually drags health score down (via the dispute-rate amplifier ×50). Acting on the forecast lifts both the score and the actual dispute rate. | ## Reconciling against the vendor's own dashboard **Where to look in Stripe Dashboard:** Stripe Dashboard does **not** expose a forward-looking chargeback forecast. The closest Stripe-native screens for cross-checking the inputs: * [Radar → Early fraud warnings](https://dashboard.stripe.com/radar/early-fraud-warnings) for the EFW count input. * [Disputes](https://dashboard.stripe.com/disputes) for the historical conversion rate and average dispute amount inputs. * [Disputes → Reasons breakdown](https://dashboard.stripe.com/disputes) for the historical fraud-vs-operations split. * [Reports → Dispute report](https://dashboard.stripe.com/reports) for the historical conversion-rate trend. A few views that look like this card but aren't: * **Stripe's "Pending disputes" tile**. Counts disputes already filed but not yet resolved; that's a backward-looking measurement. Our card is forward-looking. * **Stripe Sigma "EFW conversion" custom queries**. Closest equivalent for the fraud-driven component, but rarely include the commerce-sibling shipment-delay component. * **Chargebacks911 / Verifi forecasts** (third-party fraud tools). External chargeback-prediction services that overlap with our signal but use different data (cardholder-side history vs merchant-side EFWs). **Why our forecast may legitimately differ from a Stripe-only view:** | Reason | Direction | Why | | ---------------------------- | --------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | **Operations component** | Ours **higher** if shipping is unstable | Stripe doesn't see commerce-sibling shipment delays. A merchant with deteriorating fulfilment will see our forecast climb while Stripe-only views look stable. | | **Conversion-rate input** | Variable | We use 90-day historical conversion; merchants whose fraud landscape has shifted (new product, new region, new acquisition channel) may see actual conversion diverge from the historical input. | | **Page cap** (1,000 charges) | Marginal | EFW and dispute volumes rarely hit the cap. Affects only very-high-volume merchants. | | **FX conversion** | Estimate-grade | Multi-currency disputes converted at the day's mid-market rate. | | **Time horizon** | Strict 30-day forward | Some merchants want a 14-day or 60-day view; the card is fixed at 30 days to match Visa / Mastercard chargeback monitoring windows. | | **Refresh lag** | Ours **5, 30 min behind** | EFW data syncs every refresh; the latest hour of EFWs may be slightly stale. | **Cross-connector reconciliation:** This card is a cross-connector card. Both the fraud and operations components depend on cross-system data. | Comparison | Expected relationship | When divergence is legitimate | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | `stripe_xc_chargeback_forecast` ↔ [`stripe.stripe_disputes_open`](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/open-disputes) (next month) | Forecast should approximate the open-disputes count × avg amount that materialise in the following month. Validate by waiting 30 days then comparing. | Calibration error of ±25% is normal; >50% suggests either a fraud-landscape shift or commerce-side fulfilment improvement / deterioration. | | `stripe_xc_chargeback_forecast` ↔ [`stripe.stripe_dispute_rate`](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/dispute-rate) (forward) | Forecast / monthly\_revenue ≈ next-month dispute rate. If forecast / revenue > 0.9% the merchant is heading toward Visa monitoring. | Acting on EFWs proactively (refunding before they convert) breaks this relationship in the merchant's favour. | | `stripe_xc_chargeback_forecast` (operations component) ↔ commerce-sibling [Fulfilment Time](/nerve-centre/shopify/fulfillment_time) / [Order Status Distribution](/nerve-centre/bigcommerce/order_status_distribution) | Reducing the delayed-order share directly reduces this card's operations component. | A merchant who fixes shipping should see this card's operations component fall within 30, 60 days. | End-to-end: this card pairs with [Early Fraud Warnings](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/early-fraud-warnings) (the leading indicator on the fraud side) and the commerce sibling's [Fulfilment Time](/nerve-centre/shopify/fulfillment_time) (the leading indicator on the operations side). Acting on either input lowers the forecast within 30 days.
Documentation cross-reference (no direct counterpart on other connectors) This card is a Stripe + commerce-sibling synthesis. PayPal disputes work differently (PayPal Buyer Protection cases vs card-network chargebacks); the analogous card is [`paypal.pp_xc_dispute_forecast`](/nerve-centre/paypal/pp_xc_dispute_forecast). They cover different dispute channels and don't reconcile.
## Known limitations / merchant FAQs > Reconciliation questions are answered in the **Reconciling against the vendor's own dashboard** section above. **"My forecast feels too high; will all those disputes actually land?"** No. The forecast applies historical conversion rates (typically 73% for EFWs and 4, 8% for shipment delays). Some EFWs will be resolved by the customer (returned product, fraud team caught it) and some delayed orders will arrive without dispute. The forecast is a *propensity-weighted prediction*, not a deterministic count. If you proactively refund EFWs and expedite delayed orders, the actual landed dispute total can drop to \~10, 20% of the forecast. **"My forecast feels too low; how can it predict so few disputes?"** Two common cases. (1) Your EFW volume is low because Stripe Radar isn't sending many warnings, which can mean either healthy fraud rates or a Radar configuration issue (rules suppressing EFWs). (2) Your commerce sibling reports few shipment delays, which can mean healthy fulfilment or that the commerce-platform connector isn't capturing all shipment events. Validate by checking [Early Fraud Warnings](/nerve-centre/kpi-cards/stripe/early-fraud-warnings) volume against Stripe Dashboard directly, and the commerce-sibling fulfilment cards. **"I'm a US merchant with no SCA, why is my forecast so high?"** US merchants don't have SCA protections, which means more friendly-fraud (`fraudulent` reason where the cardholder claims they didn't authorise) lands as a chargeback. The fraud-driven component will run higher than for UK / EU merchants on the same revenue base. The fix is the same: act on EFWs proactively. **"What's the relationship between EFWs and chargebacks?"** Stripe Radar sends an EFW typically 7, 14 days before the actual chargeback lands. The merchant has a window to refund the customer or contact them; if you refund, the dispute almost always doesn't materialise (the customer no longer needs to call their bank). If you ignore the EFW, \~70, 80% become chargebacks within 30 days. Acting on EFWs is the single highest-ROI work surfaced by this card. \*\*"Are chargeback fees ($15 per dispute) in the forecast?"** No, headline number is dispute *amount* only. Add ~$15 × forecast\_count for the fee-inclusive view. For the example above ($2,987 forecast, ~22 EFWs + 4 shipment-delay disputes ≈ 26 disputes), that adds ~$390 in fees. **"Multi-currency, what currency is the forecast in?"** The commerce sibling's primary store currency. Multi-currency EFWs and disputes are FX-converted at the day's mid-market rate. Estimate-grade. **"My subscription store, do recurring-payment disputes feed this card?"** Yes. Stripe issues EFWs for subscription charges the same way as one-off charges. The disputes that follow are typically `subscription_canceled` (customer claims they cancelled before the renewal) or `fraudulent` (customer doesn't recognise the charge). The forecast captures both. Subscription stores often see disproportionately high EFW counts because customers forget about renewals; proactive renewal-reminder emails reduce this materially. **"How do I act on a high forecast?"** Three usual moves, ranked by impact: 1. **Triage EFWs daily**. The Radar → EFW screen lists each warning. Refund or contact the customer within 24 hours. Each EFW you neutralise removes \~$70, $150 of forecast. 2. **Expedite delayed orders**. The commerce-sibling fulfilment delay component is harder to fix instantly but compounds: every order that ships on time is one fewer `product_not_received` dispute waiting to happen. 3. **Tighten Radar rules** if the EFW conversion rate is climbing. A rising conversion rate means Radar is missing fraud the issuer catches; the rule set may need updating. **"Can I customise the conversion-rate inputs?"** Yes. The 90-day default is in the manifest; if your fraud landscape has shifted recently you can override the conversion rate via per-merchant config. Most merchants don't need to. **"What if I just disable EFW notifications?"** The card still works (it reads EFW history, not notification settings). But disabling notifications means you lose the proactive-refund window; the forecast becomes a number you stare at rather than a number you can act on. Strongly recommended to keep EFW notifications on regardless of this card. *** ### Tracked live in Vortex IQ Nerve Centre *Chargeback Risk Forecast (next 30d)* is one of hundreds of KPI pulses Vortex IQ tracks across Stripe and 70+ other ecommerce connectors. Nerve Centre runs the detection layer; Vortex Mind investigates the cause when something moves; Ask Viq lets you interrogate any number in plain English. [Start for free](https://app.vortexiq.ai/login) or [book a demo](https://www.vortexiq.ai/contact-us) to see this metric running on your own data.