Predicted chargeback $ over the next 30 days based on EFWs and any commerce-sibling shipment delays that historically convert to product_not_received disputes.
At a glance
A 30-day forward projection of chargeback dollars the merchant is likely to see, based on (a) Stripe Early Fraud Warnings (EFWs) already received, multiplied by their historical conversion-to-chargeback rate, plus (b) commerce-sibling shipment delays that historically convert to product_not_received disputes. Predicts dollars out the door before the chargebacks land.
Calculation
Calculated automatically from your Stripe data. See the At a glance summary above for what the metric tracks and the worked example below for a typical reading.Worked example
A US DTC electronics merchant on Shopify + Stripe. Computed on 12 Apr 26 for the next 30 days (12 Apr 26 to 12 May 26). Component A: Stripe EFW-driven forecast- EFWs are the dominant predictor. 2,987 sits in the fraud bucket. Stripe sends an EFW typically 7, 14 days before the chargeback lands; the merchant has a window to refund the customer, which prevents the dispute (and the $15 chargeback fee). A merchant who refunds 100% of EFW-flagged charges proactively can recover almost all of this number; a merchant who ignores them sees roughly 73% land as actual disputes.
- Shipment delays add a small but real second component. $611 from delayed orders. Often invisible on Stripe-only views because the disputes haven’t landed yet. The fix is on the commerce side, expediting delayed orders, proactive comms to affected customers, and pre-emptive partial refunds for inconvenience all reduce the conversion rate.
- The forecast is additive to refunds and existing disputes. This card doesn’t include disputes already filed (those are in Dispute Value) or refunds already issued (those are in Refund Value). It’s the new forecast over the next 30 days. Treat the three cards as three separate buckets.
Sibling cards merchants should reference together
Reconciling against the vendor’s own dashboard
Where to look in Stripe Dashboard: Stripe Dashboard does not expose a forward-looking chargeback forecast. The closest Stripe-native screens for cross-checking the inputs:- Radar → Early fraud warnings for the EFW count input.
- Disputes for the historical conversion rate and average dispute amount inputs.
- Disputes → Reasons breakdown for the historical fraud-vs-operations split.
- Reports → Dispute report for the historical conversion-rate trend.
- Stripe’s “Pending disputes” tile. Counts disputes already filed but not yet resolved; that’s a backward-looking measurement. Our card is forward-looking.
- Stripe Sigma “EFW conversion” custom queries. Closest equivalent for the fraud-driven component, but rarely include the commerce-sibling shipment-delay component.
- Chargebacks911 / Verifi forecasts (third-party fraud tools). External chargeback-prediction services that overlap with our signal but use different data (cardholder-side history vs merchant-side EFWs).
Cross-connector reconciliation:
This card is a cross-connector card. Both the fraud and operations components depend on cross-system data.
End-to-end: this card pairs with Early Fraud Warnings (the leading indicator on the fraud side) and the commerce sibling’s Fulfilment Time (the leading indicator on the operations side). Acting on either input lowers the forecast within 30 days.
Known limitations / merchant FAQs
Reconciliation questions are answered in the Reconciling against the vendor’s own dashboard section above.“My forecast feels too high; will all those disputes actually land?” No. The forecast applies historical conversion rates (typically 73% for EFWs and 4, 8% for shipment delays). Some EFWs will be resolved by the customer (returned product, fraud team caught it) and some delayed orders will arrive without dispute. The forecast is a propensity-weighted prediction, not a deterministic count. If you proactively refund EFWs and expedite delayed orders, the actual landed dispute total can drop to ~10, 20% of the forecast. “My forecast feels too low; how can it predict so few disputes?” Two common cases. (1) Your EFW volume is low because Stripe Radar isn’t sending many warnings, which can mean either healthy fraud rates or a Radar configuration issue (rules suppressing EFWs). (2) Your commerce sibling reports few shipment delays, which can mean healthy fulfilment or that the commerce-platform connector isn’t capturing all shipment events. Validate by checking Early Fraud Warnings volume against Stripe Dashboard directly, and the commerce-sibling fulfilment cards. “I’m a US merchant with no SCA, why is my forecast so high?” US merchants don’t have SCA protections, which means more friendly-fraud (
fraudulent reason where the cardholder claims they didn’t authorise) lands as a chargeback. The fraud-driven component will run higher than for UK / EU merchants on the same revenue base. The fix is the same: act on EFWs proactively.
“What’s the relationship between EFWs and chargebacks?”
Stripe Radar sends an EFW typically 7, 14 days before the actual chargeback lands. The merchant has a window to refund the customer or contact them; if you refund, the dispute almost always doesn’t materialise (the customer no longer needs to call their bank). If you ignore the EFW, ~70, 80% become chargebacks within 30 days. Acting on EFWs is the single highest-ROI work surfaced by this card.
**“Are chargeback fees (15 × forecast_count for the fee-inclusive view. For the example above (390 in fees.
“Multi-currency, what currency is the forecast in?”
The commerce sibling’s primary store currency. Multi-currency EFWs and disputes are FX-converted at the day’s mid-market rate. Estimate-grade.
“My subscription store, do recurring-payment disputes feed this card?”
Yes. Stripe issues EFWs for subscription charges the same way as one-off charges. The disputes that follow are typically subscription_canceled (customer claims they cancelled before the renewal) or fraudulent (customer doesn’t recognise the charge). The forecast captures both. Subscription stores often see disproportionately high EFW counts because customers forget about renewals; proactive renewal-reminder emails reduce this materially.
“How do I act on a high forecast?”
Three usual moves, ranked by impact:
- Triage EFWs daily. The Radar → EFW screen lists each warning. Refund or contact the customer within 24 hours. Each EFW you neutralise removes ~150 of forecast.
- Expedite delayed orders. The commerce-sibling fulfilment delay component is harder to fix instantly but compounds: every order that ships on time is one fewer
product_not_receiveddispute waiting to happen. - Tighten Radar rules if the EFW conversion rate is climbing. A rising conversion rate means Radar is missing fraud the issuer catches; the rule set may need updating.