% of Prime-promise (1-day / 2-day) shipments delivered late. Amazon’s SFP eligibility hinges on this; >1% triggers warning.
At a glance
Inverse of amazon_prime_sfp_otd_sla on a 7-day window: percent of Prime-promised (1-Day or 2-Day) shipments delivered late. Used as a fast-cadence early-warning. The 7-day window is what Amazon often uses internally for trending; this card lets ops act before the 30-day SFP eligibility card slips. Above 1% = within Amazon’s SFP-warning trigger zone.
| What it counts | COUNT(shipments WHERE actual_delivery_date > prime_promise_date AND service IN ('1Day','2Day','SameDay')) / COUNT(shipments WHERE service IN ('1Day','2Day','SameDay') AND status IN ('DELIVERED','FAILED')) over rolling 7 days. |
| Delivery success criterion | Carrier POD scan or signature event. |
| On-time threshold | End of customer-facing Prime promise day. |
| Returns / RTO | Excluded. |
| Service level scope | Prime-promised consignments only (1-Day, 2-Day, Same-Day). |
| Money-back-on-late | Not surfaced here; track on ama_open_claims. |
| Buy with Prime | Same definition. |
| 2-Day coverage gaps | Rural ZIPs / AK/HI/PR excluded from Prime; not in card. |
| Time window | 7D (faster cadence than the SFP eligibility card’s 30D). |
| Alert trigger | >1%. |
| Roles | owner, operations |
Calculation
Calculated automatically from your Amazon Prime Shipping (SFP) data. See the At a glance summary above for what the metric tracks and the worked example below for a typical reading.Worked example
A US merchant on SFP. Reading at 09:00 ET on 18 Mar 26 for the trailing 7 days (11 Mar 26 to 17 Mar 26).| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Prime-promised shipments (7D) | 1,725 |
| Delivered on time | 1,691 |
| Missed | 34 |
| Promise miss rate | 2.0% |
- Tripped at 2.0% means 2 of every 100 Prime customers got a broken promise. This week is materially below the Prime-badge floor.
- At sustained 2.0%, the 30-day SFP card will trip in ~3 weeks if the trend continues. Amazon’s warning notification often arrives ~7 days after a sustained 2%+ pattern. Treat this card as the leading indicator that buys you 1 to 2 weeks before the existential SFP card alerts.
- 34 misses × 10 Amazon Concession cost = ~340 of Concession charges this week alone. That is direct out-of-pocket cost to the seller as Amazon credits Prime customers.
- Investigate by carrier and ZIP via
ama_route_otd. Almost always one or two underperforming cohorts (USPS Priority rural, OnTrac specific zone) account for >50% of weekly misses. - Compare against last week. If 7-day miss rate jumped from 1.2% to 2.0% week-on-week, the 67% rise is the pattern signal. Most likely cause: volume rise straining a carrier’s pickup capacity, weather event in the period, or a packaging change creating damage exceptions.
Sibling cards merchants should reference together
The 7-day Prime miss rate is the leading indicator. Pair with these:| Card | Why pair it with Prime Miss Rate | What the combination tells you |
|---|---|---|
| SFP On-Time Delivery vs 99% Threshold | The 30-day SFP eligibility card. | This card leads it by 1 to 2 weeks. Use this for early action. |
| Late Shipments | Absolute count, same 7D window. | Count vs rate views of the same data. |
| On-Time Delivery Rate | 30-day operational baseline. | This card is the 7-day version with tighter threshold. |
| SFP Eligibility Risk by ASIN | Per-ASIN view. | Identifies which products are dragging this rate. |
| OTD by Route | Carrier-and-zone split. | Identifies the underperforming cohort. |
Cross-connector: amazon.az_concessions | Concession costs scale with miss rate. | Direct financial cost. |
Reconciling against the vendor’s own dashboard
Where to look in Amazon Seller Central: Seller Central → Performance → Account Health → Prime Performance Dashboard with 7-day filter. Closest like-for-like. Why our number may legitimately differ:| Reason | Direction | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Time zone | Boundary | Amazon defaults PST. |
| Excluded events | Either | Amazon excludes weather / customer-fault when filed. |
| In-transit | Ours rolling | Excluded until POD. |
| Card | Expected relationship | What causes legitimate divergence |
|---|---|---|
amazon.amazon_otdr | Account-wide. | Includes FBA. |
Known limitations / merchant FAQs
Why 7 days when SFP eligibility is 30 days? Speed. The 30-day card lags by definition; you cannot intervene until you can see the trend forming. The 7-day window is what most ops teams use for daily standup-and-action; the card alerts you 1 to 2 weeks before the 30-day SFP card slips below 99%. Above 1% is “warning”; what is “critical”? The card uses a single >1% threshold. In Amazon’s eligibility scoring, the practical critical threshold is sustained 2.5%+ over 30 days; that is when badge revocation begins. The 7-day card surfaces well before that. Treat 1.5% as the conversation, 2.5% as the emergency. A single bad day pushes us above 1%; should we react? Investigate but do not over-react. Single-day spikes happen for legitimate reasons (weather, depot strike, holiday-adjacent volume crunches). Look at the 7-day window context: is this single day or sustained 3+ days? Sustained patterns are real signals; single days are noise to investigate but not panic over. Concession cost vs lost revenue: which dominates? At 1 to 2% miss rate the Concession cost dominates (10 × misses = direct out-of-pocket). At sustained 2.5%+ the eligibility risk dominates: badge loss = 30 to 50% Buy Box drop = revenue impact dwarfs Concession cost. Can we exclude weather days? File Seller Central case for weather events. Card includes all unless tagged. Multi-warehouse SFP: this card pools all? Yes. The card aggregates across all SFP-connected warehouses. Per-warehouse view requires per-warehouse filter; available inama_route_otd.
Buy with Prime: same threshold?
Yes 1% miss rate triggers warning. Buy with Prime program team monitors with similar cadence to Amazon SFP.
Q4 peak realistic miss rate?
2 to 4%. Most SFP merchants run 0.8 to 1.5% steady-state and 2.5 to 4% Q4 peak. Pre-plan: aggressive ZIP opt-outs in October, capacity-locked carrier agreements, possible seasonal SFP suspension.
The card flags but the SFP card is in spec; trust this one?
Yes. This card is the leading indicator. SFP card lags by 30-day window. When this card sustains above 1% for 3+ weeks the SFP card will dip below 99%; act on this card before that happens.