Composite, success-rate × inverse decline × inverse dispute × seller-protection-coverage. The CFO single-number.
At a glance
A 0, 100 composite that compresses four PayPal-side signals (success rate, decline rate, dispute rate, seller-protection coverage) into one number a non-finance founder can read at a glance. The PayPal twin of Stripe’s Payment Health Score, with the same formula shape but PayPal-native components.
| The formula | 0.35 × success_rate + 0.25 × (100 − 5 × decline_rate) + 0.20 × (100 − 50 × dispute_rate) + 0.20 × seller_protection_coverage. Same weights and amplifiers as the Stripe twin, so cross-platform CFOs reading both can compare like-for-like. |
| Success rate component (35% weight) | COUNT(status='S' AND event_code STARTS T00) ÷ COUNT(event_code STARTS T00) × 100. PayPal’s T00xx event codes are payment captures; status = S means success. PayPal success rates are typically a few points lower than Stripe (90, 94%) because PayPal carries more high-risk traffic. |
| Decline rate amplifier (25% weight) | 100 − 5 × decline_rate. Decline rate counts D (denied) and F (failed) statuses. Same ×5 amplifier as the Stripe card, small movements feel large. |
| Dispute rate amplifier (20% weight) | 100 − 50 × dispute_rate. PayPal disputes (T19xx event codes) include both PayPal-initiated buyer protection cases and bank-initiated chargebacks. Same ×50 amplifier as Stripe, calibrated to the 1.0% Visa / Mastercard threshold. |
| Seller-protection coverage (20% weight) | Percentage of successful PayPal payments where the order qualifies for PayPal Seller Protection (eligible item, eligible payment type, valid tracking provided). High coverage is good, it limits chargeback exposure. Stripe’s twin uses payout-on-time here instead. |
| Refunds | NOT a direct input. Refunds (T11xx) drive retroactive changes to other components but the composite reads the live state. |
| Currency | n/a (composite 0, 100). Component metrics are rates and a coverage percentage, currency-neutral. |
| Time window | RT/7D (real-time, rolling 7 days). |
| Alert trigger | < 70, when the composite drops below 70 the merchant gets pinged. |
| Roles | owner, finance, operations |
Calculation
Calculated automatically from your PayPal data. See the At a glance summary above for what the metric tracks and the worked example below for a typical reading.Worked example
A digital-goods brand using PayPal as a secondary checkout option (Stripe is primary). The 7-day window covers 06 Apr 26 to 12 Apr 26.| Component | Value | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 1,140 succeeded ÷ 1,260 total payment attempts (T00xx) = 90.5% | 90.5 |
| Decline rate | 92 denied/failed ÷ 1,260 = 7.3% | 100 − 5 × 7.3 = 63.5 |
| Dispute rate | 4 dispute events ÷ 1,140 succeeded = 0.351% | 100 − 50 × 0.351 = 82.5 |
| Seller-protection coverage | 980 of 1,140 succeeded payments qualify = 86.0% | 86.0 |
- Decline rate is the biggest drag (15.88 / 25.00 possible). A 7.3% decline rate is high; benchmarks suggest 4, 6% is normal for PayPal. Look at PP Decline Reasons (when available), most likely candidates are
INSTRUMENT_DECLINED(issuer-side),PAYER_AUTHENTICATION_REQUIRED(3DS abandoned), orINSUFFICIENT_FUNDS. PayPal’s “decline” includes both PayPal-side denials and bank-side issuer declines for PayPal-bridged cards. - Seller-protection coverage at 86% is good. The 14% uncovered are usually digital-goods orders (PayPal Seller Protection requires shipping with tracking, digital goods don’t qualify) and orders with mismatched billing/shipping. This is structural and largely unfixable for digital-only merchants.
- One dispute case nudged the dispute amplifier down 4 points. Each individual case is meaningful at low volumes; at 1,140 successful payments a single dispute is 0.087%.
Sibling cards merchants should reference together
| Card | Why pair it with PP Payment Health Score |
|---|---|
| PP Success Rate | The 35%-weight component. The first card to open when the composite drops. |
| PP Decline Rate | The 25%-weight component (amplified ×5). Decline movements drive most score swings. |
| PP Dispute Rate | The 20%-weight component (amplified ×50). PayPal dispute thresholds align with Visa/Mastercard at 1%. |
| PP Seller Protection Coverage | The 20%-weight component. Coverage shape is structural for digital-goods stores. |
| PP Total Volume | Pair with this card to read scale alongside health: a 90 score on 2M/wk is essential. |
| PP Refund Rate | Not a direct input but high refund rates often precede disputes (customers refund first; if refused, escalate to dispute). |
| Stripe Payment Health Score | The Stripe twin. Cross-platform CFOs typically run both. |
Reconciling against the vendor’s own dashboard
Where to look in PayPal Business: PayPal Business does NOT have a single “Payment Health” composite, this card synthesises one from four PayPal-native signals. The closest equivalent screens:- Activity → All Transactions for success / decline context.
- Resolution Center for dispute volume and outcomes.
- Seller Protection eligibility (per-order, no aggregate dashboard) for coverage context.
- Reports → Financial summary for success-rate aggregates.
| Reason | Direction of divergence |
|---|---|
| Page cap (10,000 transactions per call). High-volume PayPal merchants (>10k events per period) see truncated values. | Vortex IQ rates may drift on heavy days |
| Time-zone. PayPal Business uses the merchant account’s configured timezone; Vortex IQ runs on UTC by default. | Boundary-day effects |
Event-code interpretation. PayPal uses T00-prefix codes for payments and T19 for disputes, but the granular sub-codes have evolved over time. Older transactions may be classified slightly differently than recent ones. | Small drift on long historical windows |
| Seller-protection eligibility refresh. PayPal can change eligibility status retroactively when shipping tracking is uploaded. Vortex IQ reads eligibility at sync time. | Coverage component slightly stale |
stripe.stripe_payment_health_score, which uses the same composite shape. The two scores are not directly comparable in absolute terms (Stripe stores tend to score 5, 10 points higher than PayPal-only stores because PayPal carries more high-risk traffic), but the direction of movement is comparable.
For end-to-end revenue-side reconciliation see paypal.pp_total_volume, which has explicit cross-connector reconciliation against the commerce platforms.
Known limitations / merchant FAQs
Why is my PayPal score lower than my Stripe score? PayPal carries more high-risk traffic than card-only Stripe stores. Buyers who don’t have credit cards (younger demographics, international, certain regions) often default to PayPal. Higher-risk traffic means slightly higher decline rates, slightly higher dispute rates, and lower seller-protection coverage (PayPal is the weapon-of-choice for chargeback abuse). 5, 10 points lower than Stripe is normal for a healthy multi-processor merchant. My score dropped 8 points overnight, what should I look at first? Same playbook as Stripe: open PP Decline Rate first (most amplified component for small movements), then PP Success Rate, then PP Dispute Rate, then PP Seller Protection Coverage. Decline rate jumps usually mean a bad traffic day (a poor-quality ad campaign sending high-risk visitors) or an issuer-side outage. Coverage drops usually mean digital goods volume rose or tracking uploads dropped. Why does PayPal “decline” include cards I’d consider issuer-declined? PayPal’sD (denied) and F (failed) statuses cover both PayPal-side denials AND bank-side issuer declines for card payments routed through PayPal. PayPal is a payment intermediary; from the merchant view the distinction is irrelevant (the customer didn’t pay). For a finer breakdown when available, see PP Decline Reasons.
What is “seller-protection coverage” exactly?
Each successful PayPal payment is evaluated against PayPal’s Seller Protection rules. Eligible orders (eligible items, valid shipping with tracking, payment via PayPal balance / bank / card, NOT crypto-funded or eCheque, etc.) get protection, meaning if a buyer files an “Item Not Received” or “Unauthorised Transaction” claim and you have evidence of shipping, PayPal covers your loss. Coverage % is eligible orders ÷ total successful orders. Higher is better. Digital-only merchants typically score very low (10, 30%) because digital goods don’t ship and don’t qualify.
Does PayPal Business have an official “health score”?
No. PayPal Business surfaces individual metrics but doesn’t provide a single composite. This card synthesises one using the same formula shape as Stripe so cross-platform comparisons stay sensible.
My multi-currency PayPal account, does the score work for me?
Yes. The components are all rates and a coverage percentage, currency-neutral. Multi-currency PayPal accounts get a single, valid health score.
The dispute component looks scary because PayPal’s threshold is 1%, but the formula uses a ×50 amplifier hitting zero at 2%, why the difference?
The ×50 amplifier is calibrated to ensure the composite drops below 70 well before you hit the 1% Visa/Mastercard chargeback monitoring threshold. The score is designed to alert you while you still have room to fix; by the time you actually hit 1% you’ve crossed into territory that can suspend your merchant account.
Why isn’t PayPal’s “Late capture” or “Hold” status counted?
PayPal’s P (pending) status (e.g. eCheque clearing, hold for review) is not counted in either success or decline; it’s transitional. When the hold resolves, the transaction transitions to S (success) or D (denied) and counts then.