USPS zone-based delivery OTD. Identifies regional weakness (rural Alaska, Hawaii, US territories) for service-level adjustment.
At a glance
USPS on-time delivery rate split by origin ZIP and destination ZIP zone (Zone 1 to 8 plus Alaska/Hawaii/US territories). The aggregate On-Time Delivery Rate hides geographic patterns; this card surfaces which lanes are dragging the headline so the merchant can act on customer-mix, fulfilment-centre placement, or service-class shifts at lane level.
| What it counts | COUNT(shipments WHERE deliveryDate <= expectedDeliveryDate AND zone = X) / COUNT(delivered shipments WHERE zone = X) per origin-destination zone pair, over the trailing 30 days. The aggregate of all zones equals the parent on-time rate. |
| Zone definition | USPS zones are defined by distance from the origin 3-digit ZIP to the destination 3-digit ZIP. Zone 1 = same ZIP region (≤50 miles), Zone 2 = adjacent regions (50 to 150 miles), Zone 3 to Zone 8 = increasing distance, Zone 9 = Alaska/Hawaii/US territories. |
| Delivery success criterion | USPS Tracking Code 01 (Delivered) within service-standard window for the zone. |
| Special destinations | Alaska (AK), Hawaii (HI), Puerto Rico (PR), US Virgin Islands (VI), Guam (GU), American Samoa (AS), Northern Mariana Islands (MP) all run as Zone 9 with significantly weaker on-time rates due to inter-island transit (HI), barge-and-air leg (AK), customs-equivalent handling (PR/VI). Expect 70 to 85% on-time vs 90 to 95% for continental zones. |
| Service level scope | All USPS services pooled by default. Each service uses its own zone-specific service standard. To split, combine with Shipments by Service. |
| Rural-route weakness | Within continental zones, rural ZIPs (3-digit prefixes ending in -0xx for rural carriers) typically run 5 to 10 ppt below the zone average. The 3-digit zone aggregation pools rural and urban; sub-zone patterns require drilling into the Shipments table. |
| Returns / RTO | Excluded across all zones. |
| Holiday/election surge | Far-zone and rural zones degrade most during November-December (Mountain West, Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains). The aggregate may stay flat while specific zones drop 20+ ppt. |
| Time window | 30D (rolling 30 days) |
| Alert trigger | any zone <85% (warn). The aggregate alert is on the parent card; this card alerts per zone. |
| Sentiment key | on_time_delivery_rate |
| Roles | owner, operations |
Calculation
Calculated automatically from your USPS data. See the At a glance summary above for what the metric tracks and the worked example below for a typical reading.Worked example
A US DTC outdoor-apparel merchant shipping out of Reno, NV (origin Zone). Reading taken at 09:00 PT on 12 Mar 26 for the trailing 30 days.| Destination Zone | Shipments | On-Time | Delta vs aggregate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zone 1 to 2 (West Coast metros) | 4,820 | 95.4% | +2.5 ppt |
| Zone 3 to 4 (Mountain West) | 3,210 | 92.8% | -0.1 ppt |
| Zone 5 (Texas, central US) | 2,180 | 91.0% | -1.9 ppt |
| Zone 6 to 7 (East Coast) | 4,310 | 89.4% | -3.5 ppt |
| Zone 8 (FL, ME, far Northeast) | 720 | 84.2% | -8.7 ppt |
| Zone 9 (AK, HI, PR) | 90 | 76.7% | -16.2 ppt |
| All zones (aggregate) | 15,330 | 92.9% | 0 |
- Zone 9 (AK, HI, PR) at 76.7% is structural, not a network problem. Inter-island and inter-territory transit adds 3 to 7 days of variance USPS cannot recover. Mitigation: extend checkout copy delivery promise for AK/HI/PR ZIPs to 7 to 14 days; do not benchmark Zone 9 against continental.
- Zone 8 at 84.2% is the actionable issue. Florida and Northeast far-zones from a Reno origin run 4 to 5 day Priority Mail; weather and far-distance routing degrade reliability. Three options: (a) Switch Zone 8 to FedEx Express where MBG hedges late-delivery cost. (b) Pre-position inventory in an East Coast DC. (c) Accept and adjust delivery-promise copy.
- The aggregate at 92.9% looks healthy, masking Zone 8 and Zone 9 problems. This is the textbook reason to use the zone breakdown rather than only watching aggregate. The 6.7% to 16.2% drop in those zones is invisible at the headline.
- West Coast at 95.4% subsidises the headline. Near-origin shipments hit reliably; this 4,820 shipments at 95.4% pulls aggregate up by ~1 ppt. Removing them shows the merchant’s actual far-zone challenge more clearly.
- Pre-positioning analysis. Adding a Memphis or Atlanta DC would cover Zone 4 to 7 from a closer origin, dropping average zone from ~5 to ~3 for East Coast customers and lifting on-time by ~3 to 5 ppt aggregate. ROI math: cost of second DC (300K/year) vs CS workload reduction + NPS lift + conversion rate uplift.
Sibling cards merchants should reference together
| Card | Why pair it with OTD by Origin-Destination ZIP Zone | What the combination tells you |
|---|---|---|
| On-Time Delivery Rate | The aggregate this card disaggregates. | Always read together; aggregate hides zone-specific problems. |
| Cost by Zone | Cost dimension of the same lanes. | Cross-tab cost × on-time identifies lanes paying premium for poor service. |
| OTD by Route | Sub-zone granularity. | 3-digit prefix view inside each zone. |
| Avg Transit (days) | Companion timing metric. | Far-zone transit creep often precedes far-zone on-time decline. |
| Priority Mail OTD | Service-class subset. | For Priority Mail, zone-by-zone is the most useful split because Priority Mail commits vary 1 to 3 days by zone. |
Cross-connector: fedex.fed_route_otd | Multi-carrier zone analysis. | Lane-level FedEx vs USPS comparison identifies carrier-mix per zone. |
Cross-connector: shopify.refund_rate | Geographic refund correlation. | Far-zone customers refund at higher rate; this card explains why. |
Reconciling against the vendor’s own dashboard
Where to look in USPS’s own dashboard: USPS Business Customer Gateway → PostalOne! → Reports → Service Performance → By Zone. PostalOne!-eligible shippers can compare directly. Smaller shippers reconcile only at the per-shipment tracking level. Why our number may legitimately differ from USPS’s portal:| Reason | Direction | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Zone definition | Same | Both card and portal use 3-digit ZIP origin-destination zoning. Within-zone variation (rural vs urban inside Zone 6, e.g.) appears the same in both. |
| Surge-period exclusions | USPS may show higher per zone | USPS excludes named-storm-affected ZIPs from regional reports; the card includes everything. |
| AK/HI/PR territories | Either | Some USPS reports separate Zone 9 territories into a “non-contiguous” bucket; the card uses Zone 9 explicitly. |
| Card | Expected relationship | What causes legitimate divergence |
|---|---|---|
fedex.fed_route_otd | Peer carrier zone analysis. | FedEx zone definitions differ slightly; both use 1 to 8 + Alaska/Hawaii but breakpoints can vary. |
shopify.unfulfilled_orders | Upstream order-source. | Geographic mix at order placement drives this card’s denominator. |