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Metrics type: Key MetricsCategory: Email Marketing
Open-deal value with closedate in current calendar month. Real-time forecast.

At a glance

The forecast that drives the Monday-morning sales standup. Sum of amount across every open deal where closedate falls within the current calendar month. Updates in real time as reps push or pull dates and move stages.

Calculation

Calculated automatically from your HubSpot data. See the At a glance summary above for what the metric tracks and the worked example below for a typical reading.

Worked example

A B2B services agency with $400k MRR running a single new-business pipeline. Reading this card on 14 Apr 26 (mid-month): Compared with last month at day 14: Five things this picture reveals:
  1. $314k unweighted is 8.2% behind March’s day-14 figure. Below the 20% drop threshold, no alert. The shape is comparable; the team is on pace.
  2. **Probability-weighted forecast of 183.6kistherealisticaskforcashplanning.Historically,theagencyclosesaround75183.6k is the realistic ask for cash planning.** Historically, the agency closes around 75% of weighted forecast (March: 228k actual on 198kweighted=115198k weighted = 115%; February: 204.5k on $172.4k weighted = 119%). For the team this is sandbagging; for the CFO it is conservative book.
  3. 58kofthe58k of the 96k Presentation Scheduled bucket is one deal. Concentration at later stages amplifies single-deal risk. If that one deal slips to May, weighted forecast drops by 34.8k(6034.8k (60% × 58k), and the WoW alert may fire.
  4. **Contract Sent (44k)isthemostcommittedbucket.9044k) is the most committed bucket.** 90% probability historically, so 39.6k is near-realised. But “Contract Sent” can stick for 30+ days at procurement-heavy enterprises; pair with Deals Stuck >30d to detect when deals are aging in the final stage.
  5. **The April unweighted is 0differentmidmonthfromtheprior30daysbecauseday14isexactlyhalfway.A200 different mid-month from the prior 30 days because day-14 is exactly half-way.** A 20% drop alert here is meaningful: if April day-14 fell to 237k while March hit $342k, that signals real slippage (deals pushed into May or lost), not just timing noise.

Sibling cards merchants should reference together

This is the short-horizon sibling of Total Pipeline. Pair them:

Reconciling against the vendor’s own dashboard

Where to look in HubSpot: Two native views give the closest comparison:
HubSpot → Reports → Sales analytics → Deal forecast (filter “closedate” to current month, status = open) HubSpot → Sales → Deals → Board view → Forecast tab
The deal-forecast tile per pipeline, summed across pipelines, should match this card to within a few thousand. Why our number may legitimately differ from HubSpot’s: Cross-connector reconciliation: The most useful reconciliation is to actual realised revenue once the month closes.

Known limitations / merchant FAQs

Why is my deal pipeline number different from my dashboard? Three usual causes: (a) you are looking at one pipeline in the UI; this card sums all open pipelines. (b) HubSpot’s Forecast view may show probability-weighted while this card is unweighted. (c) Permission filtering, your HubSpot user account may not see all pipelines, but Vortex IQ reads through a portal-wide token. Why does this number drop on the 1st of every month? Because the calendar-month window resets. Deals with closedate in the prior month leave this card and join the closed-won historical series. Combined with reps creating new deals for the current month, the number can drop 60-80% overnight. This is expected, not a bug. The pacing-vs-prior-month alert is the right way to spot real slippage. How is this different from “Total Pipeline”? Total Pipeline is everything open. This card is the slice with closedate falling in the current calendar month. A deal with closedate of 23 Sep 26 contributes to Total Pipeline today but not to this card until September. Is this probability-weighted? No, this card returns the unweighted sum. The weighted figure is computed alongside but exposed separately in the deal-pipeline drill-down. Most B2B founders prefer the unweighted figure for sandbagging. Multi-portal aggregation, what does this show? One card per portal. Vortex IQ does not aggregate forecasts across HubSpot portals because the same currency code may map to different home-currency rates per portal, and pipeline integrity matters more than aggregate convenience. Today-volatility, why does this swing during the day? Reps moving deals between stages, pushing close-dates, or marking deals closedwon / closedlost all update this number on the next sync. A 5-15% intra-day movement on an active sales day is normal. Outside business hours the number should be flat. Why is the alert pacing-based and not absolute? Because absolute month-over-month variation is high (May day-1 will be much lower than April day-30). Pacing comparison (this month at day-N vs last month at day-N) is the right discipline. Below 20% drop is the threshold; configurable per merchant. Sequence enrolment vs send timing, does this affect deals? No. Sequences are 1-to-1 outreach automations in Sales Hub, separate from deals. A sequence that emails 50 contacts does not create 50 deals. Deals are created manually or via deal-creation workflows. Why is my deal pipeline number different from my CFO’s spreadsheet? Most CFO spreadsheets use HubSpot’s CSV export at month-start, then manually subtract closed-won as the month progresses. This card is real-time. A 5-15% mid-month divergence between a static CFO view and this card is normal; the gap closes at month-end.

Tracked live in Vortex IQ Nerve Centre

Deals Closing This Month is one of hundreds of KPI pulses Vortex IQ tracks across HubSpot and 70+ other ecommerce connectors. Nerve Centre runs the detection layer; Vortex Mind investigates the cause when something moves; Ask Viq lets you interrogate any number in plain English. Start for free or book a demo to see this metric running on your own data.