$ gap between deals HubSpot says are won and revenue Stripe/Shopify actually saw. This is the handoff-leakage number that gets CFOs in the room.
At a glance
The dollar gap between deals HubSpot says are won and revenue the commerce / billing platform actually saw. The handoff-leakage number that gets CFOs in the room. Computed as sum(hubspot.deals[closedwon].amount in window) − sum(commerce.orders.total WHERE customer.email matches deal.primary_contact.email AND order.created_at within 30d of deal.closedate).
Calculation
Calculated automatically from your HubSpot data. See the At a glance summary above for what the metric tracks and the worked example below for a typical reading.Worked example
A B2B services agency at $400k MRR running HubSpot Sales Hub plus Stripe for billing. Reading on 14 Apr 26 for the trailing 90 days (14 Jan 26 to 12 Apr 26):
Compared with the prior 90 days (14 Oct 25 to 13 Jan 26):
Five things this picture reveals:
- 18.6% gap sits just below the 20% alert threshold. Trending up from 16.6% the prior 90D and 5.5% a year ago. Direction is concerning even though absolute is below threshold. Audit HS07 surfaces the YoY widening.
- The most-common single cause: wrong primary contact email on the deal. Investigating the worst 10 unrealised deals shows 6 had a different billing-contact email than the primary-contact in HubSpot, the deal looks unrealised but Stripe paid against the billing email. Fix is workflow rule “set deal primary_contact.email = invoicing email when contract sent”.
- Two deals are real leakage, not data hygiene. Both were $25k MRR contracts closed in February but never invoiced; the customer-success team manually waived first-month billing as part of the contract terms. These should have been logged as deferred-revenue, not closed-won-and-uninvoiced. Pair with
Stripe MRRto spot the missing-invoice pattern. - The 5.5% year-ago gap was healthy. A year ago the team was smaller, closed-won and invoicing were tight. Growing 90D pipeline introduced more handoff steps, more billing-contact mismatches, and more contractual nuances. The gap widening is operational, not a leakage problem. Refining the email-match logic and adding a billing-contact field would close most of the gap mechanically.
- The CFO conversation is about the dollar number, not the percentage. $114k of “won” deals not yet realised is a CFO-level cash question. Even if it is mostly billing-contact data hygiene rather than actual leakage, it sits on the CFO’s reconciliation queue until each deal’s invoice is matched.
Sibling cards merchants should reference together
The gap card is meaningful only against the underlying numerator and denominator:Reconciling against the vendor’s own dashboard
Where to look in HubSpot: HubSpot does not natively expose this gap; it is a Vortex IQ-derived cross-connector metric. Closest individual views:HubSpot → Reports → Sales analytics → Closed-won revenue (numerator) Stripe Dashboard → Reports → Net Volume / Shopify Admin → Analytics → Sales (denominator)The merchant has to manually reconcile these two numbers; this card automates that reconciliation per primary-contact email. Why our number may legitimately differ from the merchant’s expectation:
Cross-connector reconciliation:
This card IS the cross-connector view. The relevant comparisons:
Known limitations / merchant FAQs
Why is my deal pipeline number different from my dashboard? This card is closed-won (the realised side of pipeline), not open-pipeline. Open pipeline lives inTotal Deal Pipeline Value. The two are independent; rising open-pipeline says future revenue, rising realised-gap says current handoff issues.
My gap is 30%, what is wrong?
Three usual causes: (a) primary-contact email on deals does not match the billing email used in Stripe / Shopify. Most-common; fix is a workflow rule. (b) Annual prepays where realisation trails by months. Switch to the spread-by-month variant. (c) Real leakage, deals marked closed-won that were never invoiced (manual waiver, contract amendment). The deal-level drill-down identifies which.
HubSpot vs commerce platform attribution, who is right?
For revenue accounting, the commerce / billing platform is always right. HubSpot’s closed-won is a sales-team commitment; Stripe / Shopify is the cash. This card surfaces the gap between the two so finance can reconcile.
List-segment lag, does it affect this?
No. This card uses CRM deals and commerce orders, not list-based marketing data. List lag is irrelevant.
Lifecycle-stage backfill, does it touch this card?
Indirectly. If a backfill changes lifecyclestage to customer for contacts who never bought, it does not affect this card (which uses deals, not contacts directly). The deal-level view is unchanged.
Deal-stage vs deal-amount weighting, what does this card use?
Closed-won is fully realised, no probability weighting. The card sums raw amount. The forward-looking forecast cards apply probability; this is the rear-view mirror.
Multi-portal aggregation, how does it work?
One card per portal, one commerce platform per portal. If a merchant has multiple HubSpot portals each with its own commerce platform, each is reported separately. Cross-portal aggregation is not supported because the email-matching logic is per-portal.
Sequence enrolment vs send timing, does it affect deals?
No. Sequences are 1-to-1 outreach, separate from deals. The card uses deal closedwon events, not sequence engagements.
Why is my deal pipeline number different from my dashboard playbook?
The dashboard playbook may show closed-won as “this month” while this card uses 90D rolling. Re-baseline the playbook to a 90D window and the numbers should match.
Today-volatility, why does this swing?
Closed-won events fire when reps mark deals; commerce charges fire when customers pay. Both happen continuously. Daily swings of 1-3% are normal; >5% means a large deal closed-won today or a large invoice was just paid. The 90D rolling window smooths most volatility.