At a glance
Shipping-Time Accuracy (promised vs actual) measures how often your AliExpress orders actually arrive within the delivery window you promised buyers at checkout. It compares the estimated delivery shown at purchase against the real Cainiao or AliExpress Standard Shipping outcome, expressed as the percentage that landed on time. For an owner or operations lead this is the trust pulse of cross-border fulfilment, because buyers who wait longer than promised open disputes and dock the shipping axis of your Detailed Seller Ratings. Low accuracy is both a refund risk and a slow erosion of store standing. It pairs withaex_late_shipments_cainiao_sla_riskfor the live dispatch front andaex_detailed_seller_ratings_match_comm_shipfor the rating-level impact.
| What it counts | The percentage of orders whose actual delivery time fell within the window promised to the buyer at checkout. |
| Sample type | Backend API data from AliExpress, aggregated over the trailing 30-day window with a prior-period comparison. |
| Why it matters | Below-target accuracy drives buyer disputes and damages the shipping axis of your Detailed Seller Ratings. |
| Reading the value | Read it as a percentage against your target, with the period-over-period arrow. A reading under the alert floor is a dispute magnet and a Cainiao penalty risk. |
| Currency | Percent of orders on time. |
| Time window | 30D vsP |
| Alert trigger | <80% |
| Sentiment key | aex_shipping_time_accuracy |
| Roles | owner, operations |
Calculation
For each delivered order over the trailing 30 days, Vortex IQ compares the delivery window promised at checkout against the actual Cainiao or AliExpress Standard Shipping delivery outcome, then reports the share that arrived on time alongside a prior-period comparison. See the At a glance summary above for what the metric tracks and the worked example below for a typical reading.Worked example
A representative reading of Shipping-Time Accuracy (promised vs actual) for a typical cross-border AliExpress store. For the 30 days ending 19 Mar 26 the gauge reads 76%, below the 80% floor and down from 88% in the prior period, so the alert fires. The operations lead traces the drop to a single lane where a Cainiao hub delay stretched transit for buyers in two countries. They lengthen the promised window on listings shipping that lane to set realistic expectations and switch high-value orders to a faster service, lifting accuracy back above 80% over the following weeks and stemming the dispute inflow. For deeper investigation, use Vortex Mind to trace upstream causes; for natural-language exploration, ask Ask Viq.Sibling cards merchants should reference together
| Card | Why merchants reach for it |
|---|---|
aex_late_shipments_cainiao_sla_risk | The live dispatch front; late handovers are a leading cause of late delivery. |
aex_detailed_seller_ratings_match_comm_ship | The shipping axis of DSR that this metric directly affects. |
aex_dispute_rate | Late delivery is a primary driver of buyer disputes. |
aex_pending_shipment_wait_seller_send_goods | The upstream queue whose delays cascade into delivery times. |
aex_store_level_tier | Sustained delivery accuracy feeds store level and placement. |
Reconciling against AliExpress Seller Center
Where to look in AliExpress Seller Center: Open the performance and logistics dashboards, which report on-time delivery and shipping-speed figures, and cross-check against the Detailed Seller Ratings shipping axis. Why the Vortex IQ value may legitimately differ:| Reason | Direction | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Window definition. Seller Center may measure dispatch speed or delivery speed differently from the promised-vs-actual basis used here. | Variable | Confirm which window each view measures before comparing percentages. |
| Period boundary. The trailing 30-day window may not align with the Seller Center reporting range. | Marginal | Match the report range to the card’s window. |
| In-transit orders. Orders not yet delivered are excluded here but may be counted differently in Seller Center. | Variable | Compare only completed deliveries when reconciling. |
Known limitations / merchant FAQs
Q: How often does Shipping-Time Accuracy (promised vs actual) update? It aggregates over a trailing 30-day window and refreshes on each sync, with a prior-period comparison so you can see the direction of travel. Q: Why does my AliExpress Seller Center show a different number? Differences usually come from a different window definition, a period boundary that does not match the report range, or how in-transit orders are counted. Q: How does Shipping-Time Accuracy (promised vs actual) relate to other fulfilment metrics? It is the delivery-outcome end of a chain that begins withaex_pending_shipment_wait_seller_send_goods and aex_late_shipments_cainiao_sla_risk, and it feeds aex_detailed_seller_ratings_match_comm_ship and aex_dispute_rate.
Q: Can I customise the alert threshold?
Yes, sensitivity thresholds are configurable per profile in the Sensitivity tab. Adjust to match your business baseline rather than relying on the generic default.